IF Gnistan contre VPS — Veikkausliiga

**IF Gnistan 1-1 VPS**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (57% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the intense pressure on the defences, with both teams recording 89 clearances (99th percentile of joint volume), and VPS making 49 to IF Gnistan's 40 (+9, 67th percentile of gaps). The physical nature of the game was also prominent, as both sides won a massive amount of aerial duels, with IF Gnistan winning 32 and VPS winning 33 (65 in total, 98th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** IF Gnistan were more active in the final third, recording 16 shots inside the box compared to VPS's 6 (+10, 94th percentile of gaps). This translated into more clear-cut scoring opportunities, with IF Gnistan creating 4 big chances to VPS's 2 (+2, 85th percentile of gaps). Both sides bypassed the midfield frequently, completing 68 accurate long balls (88th percentile of joint volume), with IF Gnistan making 37 to VPS's 31 (+6, 68th percentile of gaps). The game also saw a high volume of accurate crosses (14 in total, 97th percentile of joint volume) and shots from distance (11 in total, 74th percentile of joint volume). While VPS won more tackles (18 to 14, 70th percentile of gaps), both teams were equally active in blocking shots, with 3 each.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are IF Gnistan win 39%, draw 38%, and VPS win 23%. With the probabilities so close that every outcome was plausible, the 1-1 is not surprising and no result would have been scandalous. IF Gnistan had the edge in big chances, creating 4 to VPS's 2.