Sturm Graz contre Heart of Midlothian — Champions League Qualification

**Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart of Midlothian**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 85% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (40%) and attack (32%). The most striking feature was the sheer volume of activity in the final third, as both teams recorded 28 shots inside the box (99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Sturm Graz making 16 to Heart of Midlothian's 12 (70th percentile of gaps). This high-pressure environment was mirrored by the creation of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with both sides producing 5 big chances each (10 in total, 99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** Heart of Midlothian sought to control the game through specific channels, making 164 passes in the opponent's half compared to Sturm Graz's 68 (86th percentile of gaps), even though the match saw few passes in the opponent's half overall (232 in total, 5th percentile of joint volume). They also found more success on the flanks, recording 7 accurate crosses to Sturm Graz's 2 (91st percentile of gaps). Conversely, while few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (56 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume), Heart of Midlothian was clearly ahead with 42 to Sturm Graz's 14 (99th percentile of gaps). Sturm Graz responded with a more combative defensive stance, making 28 tackles to Heart of Midlothian's 22 (85th percentile of gaps) and 40 clearances to 24 (92nd percentile of gaps). The game remained a physical battle on the ground, with 92 ground duels won (96th percentile of joint volume), and both sides were forced to throw bodies in front of shots, recording 5 blocks each (95th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Sturm Graz win 41%, draw 40%, and Heart of Midlothian win 19%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Despite the 4-0 scoreline, the data shows both sides were perfectly balanced in big chances, with 5 each.