Holstein Kiel contre St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga

**Holstein Kiel 2-2 St. Pauli**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (66% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the attacking phase (40%) and the build-up (35%). Both sides were highly active in the final third, creating 8 big chances in total, a volume at the 99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume. While St. Pauli had a slight edge with 5 big chances to Holstein Kiel's 3, the gap of 2 sits at the 74th percentile.

**How it played out:** The high volume of chances was supported by a massive amount of activity inside the box, with 24 shots in total at the 96th percentile of joint volume. Holstein Kiel was more frequent in these areas, recording 15 shots to St. Pauli's 9, a +6 gap at the 81st percentile. In terms of territory, Holstein Kiel was clearly ahead with 196 passes in the opponent's half compared to St. Pauli's 90, a +106 gap at the 81st percentile, despite few passes in the opponent's half in the match overall (286 in total, 30th percentile). Conversely, Holstein Kiel showed a much more patient build-up from the back, completing 278 passes in their own half to St. Pauli's 114, a +164 gap at the 96th percentile. St. Pauli looked to bypass the midfield more directly; few accurate long balls in the match, but St. Pauli was clearly ahead with 26 to Holstein Kiel's 15, a +11 gap at the 85th percentile. Both sides were equally active on the flanks, recording 11 accurate crosses in total, a volume at the 88th percentile. The physical battle was intense and balanced, with 76 ground duels won (73rd percentile) and 41 aerial duels won (81st percentile) with no real difference between the sides. St. Pauli won more tackles, 19 to 10, a +9 gap at the 90th percentile, while Holstein Kiel was clearly ahead with 9 interceptions to St. Pauli's 5, a +4 gap at the 82nd percentile, in a match with few interceptions overall (14 in total, 22nd percentile).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Holstein Kiel win 17%, draw 40%, and St. Pauli win 43%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-2 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where both sides produced 6 shots on target.