VfB Krieschow contre Mainz 05 — DFB Pokal

**VfB Krieschow 0-9 Mainz 05**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 95% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (42%), followed by the attack (23%), defending (20%), and duels (15%). Mainz 05 was clearly ahead in the build-up, making 392 passes in the opponent's half compared to VfB Krieschow's 57, a +335 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps, even though few passes in the opponent's half were recorded overall (449 in total, 7th percentile of joint volume). Mainz 05 also dominated the attacking metrics, making 12 shots on target to VfB Krieschow's 2, a +10 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Mainz 05 also created the most clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 8 big chances to VfB Krieschow's 1, a +7 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. While both teams took a high volume of shots from distance (13 in total, 91st percentile of joint volume), there was no real difference between them, with Mainz 05 recording 7 and VfB Krieschow 6. In terms of direct play, Mainz 05 made 12 more accurate long balls than the other side (38 to 26, 87th percentile of gaps), despite a high joint volume of 64 (78th percentile). On the flanks, few accurate crosses were recorded in the match (14 in total, 25th percentile of joint volume), but Mainz 05 was clearly ahead with 13 to VfB Krieschow's 1, a +12 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. VfB Krieschow was more active in blocking shots, making 9 to Mainz 05's 3, a +6 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps, in a game with a high joint volume of 12 blocks (93rd percentile). The physical battle on the ground was minimal, with only 45 ground duels won between the two teams (3rd percentile of joint volume), split almost evenly at 23 and 22.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are VfB Krieschow win 11%, draw 15%, and Mainz 05 win 74%. The performances pointed to a Mainz 05 win and that is what happened, with the 8 big chances to 1 and 12 shots on target to 2 confirming the result.