Goiás contre Fortaleza — Brasileirão Série B

**Goiás 0-1 Fortaleza**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (96% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up (36%), attack (27%), and duels (26%), while defending accounted for only 11%. The most striking fact was the lack of penetration into the box, with only 7 shots inside the box between the two teams (Goiás 5, Fortaleza 2), a volume in the 5th percentile of joint totals. Furthermore, both sides struggled to beat opponents one-on-one, recording only 5 successful dribbles in total (Goiás 2, Fortaleza 3), which ranks in the 6th percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** Both teams were highly active in the final third, completing 384 passes in the opponent's half (93rd percentile of joint volume), with Fortaleza making 220 to Goiás's 164 (76th percentile of gaps). Despite this territorial control, the game remained congested, leading to 12 shots from distance (76th percentile of joint volume), with Fortaleza taking 8 and Goiás 4 (86th percentile of gaps). The build-up from the back was patient and safe, as both sides completed 438 passes in their own half (91st percentile of joint volume). While few accurate crosses were recorded in the match, Goiás was clearly ahead with 5 to Fortaleza's 1. Similarly, few corners were recorded in the match, but Goiás was clearly ahead with 5 to Fortaleza's 2. Fortaleza also utilized a more direct approach, completing 28 accurate long balls to Goiás's 22 (73rd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Goiás win 25%, draw 43%, and Fortaleza win 32%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With both teams creating 1 big chance each, the 1-0 result was a narrow margin.