Novi Pazar contre FK Zemun — Serbian Super League

**Novi Pazar 2-2 FK Zemun**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart (98% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up (37%) and the attack (34%). Novi Pazar was much more active in the final third, recording 15 shots inside the box compared to just 4 from FK Zemun, a +11 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. Despite this, the overall volume of shots on target was high (10 in total, 79th percentile of joint volume), with Novi Pazar holding a 6 to 4 edge.

**How it played out:** Novi Pazar found more ways to penetrate the box, creating 5 big chances to FK Zemun's 1 (92nd percentile of gaps) and winning 21 aerial duels to 12 (93rd percentile of gaps). They also had a clear advantage in the air and on the flanks, recording 9 accurate crosses to 3 (91st percentile of gaps). While both sides were patient in their own half with 392 passes combined (81st percentile of joint volume), Novi Pazar was more direct, completing 28 accurate long balls to FK Zemun's 16 (84th percentile of gaps) in a match where few accurate long balls were recorded overall (44 in total, 16th percentile). FK Zemun, meanwhile, was more active in preventing direct shots, recording 4 blocked shots to Novi Pazar's 0 (84th percentile of gaps) in a game with few blocked shots overall (4 in total, 22nd percentile).

**Verdict:** The performances leaned towards a Novi Pazar win (48%), but the actual result was far from unlikely (41%). The fair probabilities are Novi Pazar win 48%, draw 41%, and FK Zemun win 11%.