Atlante contre Pumas — Liga MX

**Atlante 1-2 Pumas**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (58% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast was in the set pieces, where few corners were recorded in the match (10 in total, 5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Atlante was clearly ahead with 10 to 0. Defending also stood out as a key area of unusualness, with both teams performing a high volume of clearances (Atlante 36, Pumas 37; 73 in total, 99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** Pumas utilized a more direct approach to bypass the midfield, completing 36 accurate long balls to Atlante's 22 (a +14 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps). Both sides were patient in their own halves, completing 388 passes in total (78th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Pumas making 214 to Atlante's 174 (a +40 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps). Atlante was more active in the box, recording 9 shots inside the box to Pumas's 5 (a +4 gap at the 70th percentile of gaps), and they were also clearly ahead in long-range attempts with 6 to 1 (a +5 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps). Pumas were more effective at creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, finding 3 big chances to Atlante's 1 (a +2 gap at the 69th percentile of gaps). Atlante also showed a better reading of the game, recording 12 interceptions to Pumas's 8 (a +4 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Atlante win 32%, draw 32%, and Pumas win 36%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-2 scoreline reflects a wide-open match where Pumas had 3 big chances to Atlante's 1.