Las Palmas contre Castellón — LaLiga 2

**Las Palmas 0-3 Castellón**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 85% of matches, with the atypicality concentrated in the attack, duels, and build-up. The most striking contrast appeared in the creation of clear-cut scoring opportunities: few big chances overall (5 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Castellón was clearly ahead (Castellón 5, Las Palmas 0), a gap at the 99th percentile. A similar pattern emerged in getting into dangerous areas: few shots inside the box in the match (12 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Castellón was clearly ahead (Castellón 11, Las Palmas 1), a gap at the 97th percentile. Furthermore, while few shots on target were recorded overall (8 in total, 18th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Castellón was clearly ahead (Castellón 7, Las Palmas 1), a gap at the 96th percentile.

**How it played out:** Castellón maintained a significant territorial advantage, completing 272 passes in the opponent's half compared to Las Palmas' 109 (a +163 gap at the 94th percentile), even though both teams did a lot of passes in the opponent's half (381 in total, 72nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Las Palmas attempted to bypass the midfield with more direct play, as they were clearly ahead in accurate long balls (Las Palmas 19, Castellón 13), a +6 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps, despite few accurate long balls in the match (32 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume). In the physical battle, both teams won a lot of ground duels (Las Palmas 47, Castellón 46; 93 in total, 97th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Las Palmas won more dribbles (Las Palmas 17, Castellón 9), a +8 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps, and were clearly ahead in the air (Las Palmas 12, Castellón 5), a +7 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps, in a match with few aerial duels won overall (17 in total, 8th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Defensively, Las Palmas was clearly ahead in blocked shots (Las Palmas 3, Castellón 0), a +3 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps, in a match with few blocked shots overall (3 in total, 22nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Las Palmas win 5%, draw 25%, and Castellón win 70%. The performances pointed to a Castellón win and that is what happened, with the side clearly ahead in big chances and shots on target.