Jong Ajax vs Roda JC Kerkrade — Eerste Divisie

**Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda JC Kerkrade**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 72% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (37%) and defending (23%). The most striking contrast lies in the dribbling: few successful dribbles occurred in the match (6 in total, 6th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Jong Ajax was clearly ahead with 4 to Roda JC Kerkrade's 2 (67th percentile of gaps). Conversely, the build-up was defined by a massive volume of passes in the defensive halves (528 in total, 97th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), where Jong Ajax made 329 passes in their own half compared to Roda JC Kerkrade's 199 (92nd percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Roda JC Kerkrade found more success in the final third, recording 11 shots inside the box to Jong Ajax's 4 (92nd percentile of gaps) and 7 shots on target to 3 (89th percentile of gaps). While there were few shots from distance in the match (6 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Roda JC Kerkrade was clearly ahead with 5 to Jong Ajax's 1 (86th percentile of gaps). In terms of territorial control, few passes in the opponent's half occurred in the match (264 in total, 29th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Roda JC Kerkrade was clearly ahead with 166 to Jong Ajax's 98 (79th percentile of gaps). Jong Ajax faced more pressure, recording 30 clearances to Roda JC Kerkrade's 16 (90th percentile of gaps) in a game with a high volume of clearances (46 in total, 74th percentile of joint volume). Roda JC Kerkrade also won more ground duels (39 to 29, 87th percentile of gaps) and made 9 interceptions to Jong Ajax's 3 (85th percentile of gaps) in a match with few interceptions overall (12 in total, 7th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Jong Ajax win 18%, draw 42%, and Roda JC Kerkrade win 40%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-2 draw is not surprising given that Roda JC Kerkrade had 2 big chances while Jong Ajax had 1.