Middlesbrough vs Millwall — Championship

**Middlesbrough 1-2 Millwall**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 92% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (38%) and the attacking actions (27%). Both teams were extremely active in the final third, recording 34 shots inside the box (96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). A massive disparity emerged here, with Middlesbrough making 27 shots inside the box compared to Millwall's 7, a gap at the 100th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Middlesbrough exerted significant pressure through the flanks and into the box, recording 17 corners to Millwall's 6 (99th percentile of gaps) and 12 accurate crosses to 6 (91st percentile of gaps). This sustained pressure resulted in 5 big chances for Middlesbrough against 2 for Millwall (95th percentile of gaps), with 7 big chances in total (96th percentile of joint volume). Millwall, meanwhile, focused on defensive resilience, recording 20 blocked shots to Middlesbrough's 3 (99th percentile of gaps) to handle the constant threat. While both sides avoided direct play, recording only 35 accurate long balls in total (5th percentile of joint volume), Middlesbrough was more active in reading the game with 13 interceptions to Millwall's 10 (76th percentile of gaps). In a match with few ground duels won overall (54 in total, 7th percentile of joint volume), Middlesbrough was clearly ahead, winning 34 to Millwall's 20 (95th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Middlesbrough win 26%, draw 35%, and Millwall win 39%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Despite Middlesbrough creating 5 big chances to Millwall's 2, the 1-2 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest.