Toluca vs Leon — Liga MX

**Toluca 4-1 Leon**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (56% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (33%) and duels (28%). Both teams were highly active in creating direct threats, recording 14 shots from distance (93rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume) and 12 shots on target (91st percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Toluca held a slight edge in both areas, recording 8 and 7 shots from distance and on target respectively, with the +2 gap ranking at the 69th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Leon exerted significant territorial control, completing 224 passes in the opponent's half compared to Toluca's 122, a +102 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. This pressure resulted in Leon earning 7 corners to Toluca's 2, a +5 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. While Leon was more successful in one-on-one situations, recording 11 successful dribbles to Toluca's 4 (+7, 93rd percentile of gaps), Toluca was more effective at bypassing the midfield. Few accurate long balls were recorded in the match, but Toluca was clearly ahead with 28 to Leon's 15, a +13 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both sides were busy cutting passing lanes, with 29 interceptions in total (93rd percentile of joint volume), and Toluca recorded 16 to Leon's 13. In the air, few aerial duels were won in the match, but Toluca was clearly ahead with 12 to Leon's 5, a +7 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The performances pointed to a Toluca win (55%), and that is what happened. The fair probabilities are Toluca win 55%, draw 31%, and Leon win 14%. Toluca's victory was supported by their 7 shots on target to Leon's 5 and 2 big chances to 1.