Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech First League

**Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (91% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up, which accounted for 53% of the atypicality. Few corners were awarded in the match, with only 10 in total (5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Jablonec was clearly ahead with 10 to Sigma Olomouc's 0 (98th percentile of gaps). Similarly, few shots from distance were recorded in the match, with only 8 in total (13th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Jablonec was clearly ahead with 7 to Sigma Olomouc's 1 (93rd percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Jablonec found more ways to penetrate the final third, recording 12 shots inside the box to Sigma Olomouc's 4 (89th percentile of gaps) and creating 4 big chances compared to just 1 for the opposition (88th percentile of gaps). Both sides were active in the attacking third, completing a high volume of passes in the opponent's half (314 in total, 70th percentile of joint volume) and producing many accurate crosses (10 in total, 80th percentile of joint volume). While Jablonec had a slight edge in accurate crosses (6 to 4, 66th percentile of gaps), the game remained physically contested in the air, where few aerial duels were won overall (23 in total, 30th percentile of joint volume), but Jablonec was clearly ahead with 13 to Sigma Olomouc's 10 (70th percentile of gaps). Sigma Olomouc spent much of the game defending deep and clearing the ball under pressure, recording 32 clearances to Jablonec's 18 (78th percentile of gaps) out of 50 total (80th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Jablonec win 52%, draw 32%, and Sigma Olomouc win 16%. The performances pointed to a Jablonec win and that is what happened, supported by their 4 big chances to Sigma Olomouc's 1.