Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa

**Zagłębie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 68% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (39%) and defending (29%). The most striking feature was the volume of long-range attempts, as both teams took 8 and 9 shots from distance respectively, totaling 17 attempts at the 99th percentile of their joint volume. Despite this, direct threats were scarce, with only 4 shots on target recorded between them, a figure in the 22nd percentile of their joint volume.

**How it played out:** Piast Gliwice showed a preference for territorial control and patient build-up from the back, making 169 passes in the opponent's half to Zagłębie Lubin's 83 (+86, 84th percentile of gaps) and 188 passes in their own half to 80 (+108, 88th percentile of gaps), even though few passes in their own half were made in the match overall (268 in total, 15th percentile). Zagłębie Lubin, meanwhile, was clearly ahead in direct play, completing 26 accurate long balls to Piast Gliwice's 11 (+15, 89th percentile of gaps), despite few accurate long balls in the match overall (37 in total, 2nd percentile). The game was also physically contested in the air, with 44 aerial duels won (84th percentile of joint volume), and Zagłębie Lubin won 25 to Piast Gliwice's 19 (+6, 84th percentile of gaps). Defensively, Zagłębie Lubin was more active in winning the ball back, recording 11 interceptions to 4 (+7, 93rd percentile of gaps) and 12 tackles to 10 (+2, 67th percentile of gaps), in a match where few interceptions (15) and few tackles (22) were made overall. Both sides also generated a high volume of corners, with 16 in total (94th percentile of joint volume), and Zagłębie Lubin faced more pressure, making 47 clearances to Piast Gliwice's 30 (+17, 93rd percentile of gaps) out of 77 total clearances (99th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Zagłębie Lubin win 37%, draw 51%, and Piast Gliwice win 12%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With 2 shots on target each and 1 big chance each, the 2-0 result was a plausible outcome.