Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge — Swiss Challenge League

**Stade Nyonnais 0-0 Etoile Carouge**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 70% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by the build-up and attack. The most striking contrast was in long-range attempts, where Etoile Carouge took 12 shots from distance to Stade Nyonnais' 4, a +8 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Conversely, the two sides combined for 16 shots from distance, a high volume at the 86th percentile of joint volume. While few passes were made in the opponent's half overall (385 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume), Etoile Carouge was clearly ahead with 315 to Stade Nyonnais' 70, a +245 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Etoile Carouge maintained a presence in the final third, recording 11 corners to Stade Nyonnais' 3, a +8 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. They also utilized a direct approach, making 44 accurate long balls to Stade Nyonnais' 23, a +21 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. In a game with few interceptions overall (13 in total, 20th percentile of joint volume), Etoile Carouge was clearly ahead with 8 to Stade Nyonnais' 5, a +3 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps. Stade Nyonnais, however, won the physical battle on the ground, winning 46 ground duels to Etoile Carouge's 29, a +17 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. They also recorded 26 tackles to Etoile Carouge's 16, a +10 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. Despite these differences, both teams created a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 7 big chances in total (90th percentile of joint volume), though Stade Nyonnais had 5 to Etoile Carouge's 2, a +3 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The performances pointed to a Stade Nyonnais win (70%), the actual result had only 22%. The fair probabilities are Stade Nyonnais win 70%, draw 22%, and Etoile Carouge win 8%. With Stade Nyonnais creating 5 big chances to Etoile Carouge's 2, the draw was the least likely of the three outcomes.