GV San José vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División de Bolivia

**GV San José 3-3 Oriente Petrolero**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 94% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by defending (43%), followed by build-up (23%), duels (18%), and attack (16%). The most striking anomaly was the disparity in clearances: there were few clearances in the match (46 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but GV San José was clearly ahead with 42 to Oriente Petrolero's 4 (a +38 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps). Furthermore, the ground duels were extremely scarce, with only 41 won between the two teams (1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** GV San José faced significant pressure, evidenced by them making 4 more blocked shots than Oriente Petrolero (4 to 0, a +4 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps). While both sides struggled to win the ball back, GV San José won 13 aerial duels to Oriente Petrolero's 6 (a +7 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps) in a game with few aerial duels won overall (19 in total, 12th percentile). Oriente Petrolero controlled more of the game's territory, making 235 passes in the opponent's half compared to GV San José's 58 (a +177 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps), even though few passes in the opponent's half were made in the match (293 in total, 4th percentile). Oriente Petrolero also made 125 passes in their own half compared to GV San José's 49 (a +76 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps), despite few passes in their own half overall (174 in total, 2nd percentile). The attacking output was balanced, with both teams recording 6 shots on target and a high volume of long-range attempts (17 in total, 99th percentile).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are GV San José win 45%, draw 31%, and Oriente Petrolero win 24%. The performances leaned towards a GV San José win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With 12 shots on target shared between the two sides, the 3-3 draw was a plausible outcome.