Ajax vs Excelsior — Eredivisie

**Ajax 2-2 Excelsior**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 91% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (45%) and the attacking actions (29%). Ajax was clearly ahead in terms of getting into dangerous areas, making 24 shots inside the box compared to Excelsior's 4, a gap at the 100th percentile of gaps. A similar disparity appeared in the build-up: Ajax made 461 passes in the opponent's half to Excelsior's 63, a +398 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps, even though the joint volume of such passes was low (524 in total, 15th percentile).

**How it played out:** Ajax also controlled the flanks and the final third, making 13 accurate crosses to Excelsior's 0, a gap at the 100th percentile of gaps, and 9 corners to 0, a +9 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. While few shots from distance were recorded in the match (9 in total, 4th percentile of joint volume), Ajax was clearly ahead with 9 to Excelsior's 0, a gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Excelsior focused on defensive disruption, recording 20 interceptions to Ajax's 6, a +14 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. On the ground, Ajax won 36 duels to Excelsior's 22, a +14 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps, in a match with few ground duels won overall (58 in total, 14th percentile). Both sides were active in one-on-one situations, completing 20 successful dribbles in total (80th percentile of joint volume), with Ajax making 13 to Excelsior's 7, a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. Ajax also made 294 passes in their own half to Excelsior's 69, a +225 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps, in a match with few such passes overall (363 in total, 15th percentile).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Ajax win 37%, draw 42%, and Excelsior win 21%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-2 draw is consistent with the fact that Ajax had 8 shots on target to Excelsior's 2.