Shimizu S-Pulse vs JEF United Chiba — J1 League

**Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 JEF United Chiba**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (92% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the high volume of aerial duels, with both teams winning 26 and 27 respectively, totaling 53 (94th percentile of joint volume). Defending also stood out as a primary source of unusualness, particularly in the reading of the game. Both teams recorded a high volume of interceptions (27 in total, 84th percentile of joint volume), but Shimizu S-Pulse was significantly ahead with 18 to JEF United Chiba's 9, a +9 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** JEF United Chiba focused on a patient build-up from the back, completing 199 passes in their own half compared to 156 for Shimizu S-Pulse, a moderate gap at the 69th percentile. In contrast, Shimizu S-Pulse was clearly ahead in direct play, completing 27 accurate long balls to JEF United Chiba's 16, a gap at the 82nd percentile, despite few accurate long balls in the match overall (43 in total, 15th percentile). Shimizu S-Pulse also exerted sustained pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 8 corners to JEF United Chiba's 3, a gap at the 86th percentile. JEF United Chiba sought to win the ball back through physical challenges, recording 19 tackles to Shimizu S-Pulse's 11, a gap at the 87th percentile. Shimizu S-Pulse looked for opportunities when the box was crowded, making 6 shots from distance to JEF United Chiba's 3, a moderate gap at the 77th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Shimizu S-Pulse win 30%, draw 40%, and JEF United Chiba win 30%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. Both sides were level with 4 shots on target and 1 big chance each.