Guayaquil City vs Libertad — Ecuadorian Serie A

**Guayaquil City 0-0 Libertad**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 86% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (59% of the unusualness). Both teams were extremely active in the final third, completing 521 passes in the opponent's half (99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Guayaquil City making 320 to Libertad's 201 (a +119 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps). Conversely, there were few passes in their own half in the match (332 in total, 17th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Guayaquil City was clearly ahead with 258 to Libertad's 74 (a +184 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Guayaquil City exerted sustained pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 7 corners to Libertad's 2 (an +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps). They also found more success on the flanks, as Guayaquil City was clearly ahead with 4 accurate crosses to Libertad's 0 (an +4 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps). Libertad, meanwhile, faced more pressure deep in their own territory, recording 22 clearances to Guayaquil City's 7 (an +15 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps). Both sides were frequently forced to throw bodies in front of shots, with 7 blocked shots in total (81st percentile of joint volume), and Guayaquil City made 4 to Libertad's 3 (a +1 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps). In terms of direct threat, both teams did a lot of shots from distance (14 in total, 89th percentile of joint volume), with Libertad making 9 to Guayaquil City's 5 (an +4 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps). There were few big chances in the match, but Libertad was clearly ahead with 1 to Guayaquil City's 0 (a +1 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Guayaquil City win 27%, draw 35%, and Libertad win 38%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 0-0 draw is consistent with a match where Libertad had 1 big chance to Guayaquil City's 0.