UAE vs Kuwait — FIFA Arab Cup

**UAE 3-1 Kuwait**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (98% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking deviation occurred in the build-up, where both teams produced a high volume of accurate crosses (12 in total, 94th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Kuwait making 8 to UAE's 4 (88th percentile of gaps). Defending also contributed significantly to the match's profile, specifically regarding UAE's clearances. UAE recorded 24 clearances to Kuwait's 10 (90th percentile of gaps), indicating a side frequently forced to get the ball away under pressure.

**How it played out:** Kuwait focused on attacking down the flanks and sustained pressure near the goal, evidenced by their 8 accurate crosses and 4 corners to UAE's 2 (76th percentile of gaps). They also took more shots from distance (4 to 2, 78th percentile of gaps), often when the box was crowded. In contrast, UAE was more successful at getting into dangerous areas, recording 8 shots inside the box to Kuwait's 3. Both sides bypassed the midfield with a high volume of direct play, recording 56 accurate long balls in total (73rd percentile of joint volume). While there were few tackles in the match (20 in total, 12th percentile of joint volume), UAE was clearly ahead with 12 to Kuwait's 8 (78th percentile of gaps). Similarly, few ground duels were won in the match (57 in total, 20th percentile of joint volume), but UAE was clearly ahead with 33 to Kuwait's 24 (85th percentile of gaps). Kuwait also read the game well with 9 interceptions to UAE's 6 (68th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are UAE win 56%, draw 33%, and Kuwait win 11%. The performances pointed to a UAE win (56%), and that is what happened. This was supported by UAE creating 3 big chances to Kuwait's 1 and recording 5 shots on target to Kuwait's 2.