Hartberg vs WSG Tirol — Austrian Bundesliga

**Hartberg 2-1 WSG Tirol**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (56% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up, which accounted for 53% of the atypicality. Both teams bypassed the midfield frequently, completing 81 accurate long balls in total (97th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Hartberg making 49 to WSG Tirol's 32 (91st percentile of gaps). Despite this direct approach, there were few corners in the match, but Hartberg was clearly ahead with 8 to WSG Tirol's 1 (94th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Hartberg showed a preference for patient build-up from the back, completing 253 passes in their own half compared to 156 for WSG Tirol (84th percentile of gaps), even though both sides were active in their own halves with 409 passes in total (79th percentile of joint volume). On the flanks, Hartberg also had a significant edge, making 8 accurate crosses to WSG Tirol's 3 (87th percentile of gaps). WSG Tirol, meanwhile, was more active with long-range attempts, making 5 shots from distance to Hartberg's 3 (72nd percentile of gaps). Defensively, WSG Tirol was under more pressure, recording 35 clearances to Hartberg's 16 (87th percentile of gaps) in a game where both sides were busy clearing the ball (51 in total, 79th percentile of joint volume). In the air, WSG Tirol won 19 aerial duels to Hartberg's 13 (83rd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The performances pointed to a draw (47%), while the actual result had only a 19% probability. The fair probabilities are Hartberg win 19%, draw 47%, and WSG Tirol win 34%. With Hartberg recording 4 shots on target to WSG Tirol's 2, the result was the least likely of the three outcomes.