NFC Volos vs AEK Athens — Greek Super League

**NFC Volos 2-2 AEK Athens**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 87% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by build-up (38%) and defending (29%), with duels contributing another 25%. A striking contrast emerged in individual actions: few successful dribbles occurred in the match (19 in total, 29th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet AEK Athens was clearly ahead with 16 to NFC Volos's 3, a +13 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Conversely, in a game with few blocked shots (9 in total, 22nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), NFC Volos was clearly ahead with 9 to AEK Athens's 0, a +9 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** AEK Athens exerted significant territorial control, making 295 passes in the opponent's half compared to NFC Volos's 47, a +248 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps, despite few such passes occurring in the match overall (342 in total, 1st percentile). They also maintained a patient build-up from the back, completing 194 passes in their own half to NFC Volos's 48, a +146 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps, in a match where few such passes were made (242 in total, 3rd percentile). AEK Athens also found more success down the flanks, making 8 accurate crosses to NFC Volos's 2, a +6 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. NFC Volos focused on winning the ball back and clearing it under pressure, recording 37 clearances to AEK Athens's 8, a +29 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps, and 18 tackles to 9, a +9 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps. Both sides were physically matched in the air, each winning 22 aerial duels. While few shots from distance were taken in the match (7 in total, 12th percentile), AEK Athens was clearly ahead with 6 to NFC Volos's 1, a +5 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are NFC Volos win 39%, draw 44%, and AEK Athens win 17%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-2 draw reflects a wide-open game where NFC Volos had 2 big chances to AEK Athens's 1.