Virtus Entella vs Modena — Serie B

**Virtus Entella 2-1 Modena**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (83% of matches were more unusual than this one). The primary distinction lay in the attacking output, where both teams created a high volume of big chances (6 in total, 80th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). However, Modena was significantly more productive in this area, creating 5 big chances to Virtus Entella's 1, a gap at the 96th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Modena exerted significant pressure in the final third, recording 6 corners to Virtus Entella's 1 (few corners in the match, but Modena was clearly ahead; 90th percentile of gaps) and 9 accurate crosses to 3 (94th percentile of gaps). They also controlled more of the territory, completing 199 passes in the opponent's half compared to 153 for Virtus Entella (73rd percentile of gaps). While few shots from distance were taken in the match, Modena was clearly ahead with 5 to 2 (80th percentile of gaps). Virtus Entella, meanwhile, focused on a patient build-up from the back, completing 217 passes in their own half to Modena's 164 (70th percentile of gaps). Defensively, Virtus Entella was under heavy pressure, recording 40 clearances to Modena's 18 (96th percentile of gaps). The physical battle was largely aerial, with both sides winning 48 duels overall (90th percentile of joint volume), while few ground duels were won in the match, but Virtus Entella was clearly ahead with 29 to 24 (73rd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Virtus Entella win 48%, draw 33%, and Modena win 19%. The performances pointed to a Virtus Entella win and that is what happened. Despite Modena creating 5 big chances to Virtus Entella's 1, the result was deserved.