Atlas vs Chivas — Liga MX

**Atlas 1-2 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 59% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by duels (33%), build-up (25%), attack (22%), and defending (20%). The most striking contrast was in ground duels, where few were won overall (59 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Chivas was clearly ahead with 39 to Atlas's 20 (a +19 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps). Similarly, few successful dribbles occurred in the match (7 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Chivas was clearly ahead with 6 to Atlas's 1 (a +5 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Chivas exerted significant territorial control, completing 269 passes in the opponent's half compared to Atlas's 102 (a +167 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps). This was supported by a patient build-up from the back, with Chivas making 231 passes in their own half to Atlas's 96 (a +135 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps). Chivas also maintained sustained pressure near the goal, recording 7 corners to Atlas's 2 (a +5 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps). While few shots inside the box occurred in the match (9 in total, 7th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Chivas was clearly ahead with 7 to Atlas's 2 (a +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps). This translated into clear-cut scoring opportunities, as few big chances occurred in the match (3 in total, 15th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Chivas was clearly ahead with 3 to Atlas's 0 (a +3 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps). Atlas focused on defensive stability, recording 39 clearances to Chivas's 22 (a +17 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps) and 15 interceptions to Chivas's 9 (a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Atlas win 32%, draw 37%, and Chivas win 31%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Chivas secured the win despite Atlas having 3 shots on target to Chivas's 4.