Napoli vs Lecce — Serie A

**Napoli 2-1 Lecce**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 71% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking feature was the build-up, where few passes in their own half were recorded overall (401 in total, 12th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Napoli made 275 more than the other side (Napoli 338, Lecce 63), a gap at the 100th percentile. Despite this disparity in possession, both teams generated a high volume of corners (Napoli 7, Lecce 7; 14 in total, 95th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** The game was defined by a high volume of physical challenges, with both teams recording many tackles (Napoli 18, Lecce 20; 38 in total, 84th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). While few interceptions occurred in the match (12 in total, 16th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Napoli made 2 more than the other side (Napoli 7, Lecce 5), a gap at the 70th percentile. Lecce looked to exploit the flanks, making 3 more accurate crosses than the other side (Lecce 6, Napoli 3), a gap at the 81st percentile. Napoli maintained a moderate gap in direct threat, making 2 more shots on target than the other side (Napoli 4, Lecce 2), a gap at the 69th percentile. Defensively, Napoli had more bodies thrown in front of shots, making 2 more blocked shots than the other side (Napoli 4, Lecce 2), a gap at the 85th percentile. On the ground, Lecce won 6 more ground duels than the other side (Lecce 37, Napoli 31), a gap at the 75th percentile. Direct play was limited for both sides, with little accurate long balls from either team (Napoli 19, Lecce 17; 36 in total, 6th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Napoli win 31%, draw 31%, and Lecce win 38%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-1 scoreline follows a match where Napoli had 4 shots on target to Lecce's 2.