Leon vs Tijuana — Liga MX

**Leon 0-3 Tijuana**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (91% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast was found in the duels, where Leon completed 14 successful dribbles to Tijuana's 2, a +12 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps, despite only 16 successful dribbles in the match overall. Territorial control also stood out, as Leon completed 309 passes in the opponent's half compared to Tijuana's 88, a +221 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Leon maintained a patient build-up from the back, completing 200 passes in their own half to Tijuana's 103, a +97 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps. They also held a lead in attacking areas, completing 2 accurate crosses to Tijuana's 0, a +2 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps, and 5 shots from distance to Tijuana's 2, a +3 gap at the 77th percentile of gaps. Tijuana, meanwhile, looked to bypass the midfield with 31 accurate long balls to Leon's 23, a +8 gap at the 78th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both sides were under pressure, recording 48 clearances in total, a 79th percentile of joint volume, with Tijuana making 30 to Leon's 18, a +12 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps. Tijuana also excelled at reading the game, recording 12 interceptions to Leon's 5, a +7 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall. On the ground, Leon won 41 duels to Tijuana's 34, a +7 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Leon win 34%, draw 30%, and Tijuana win 36%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Tijuana's 3 big chances compared to Leon's 1 helped define the 0-3 scoreline.