Libertad vs Sportivo Trinidense — Paraguay Division Profesional

**Libertad 1-1 Sportivo Trinidense**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (68% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast was found in the physical battle of the air, where Libertad won 26 aerial duels to Sportivo Trinidense's 11, a +15 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. At the other end of the pitch, the defensive pressure was intense, with both teams recording 58 clearances in total, a volume at the 86th percentile of joint volume. Libertad was the side under more pressure, recording 40 clearances to Sportivo Trinidense's 18, a +22 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Libertad's defensive stance was supported by their work in the middle and front of the box, as they made 18 tackles to Sportivo Trinidense's 13, a +5 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps, and 3 blocked shots to 1, a +2 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps. In contrast, Sportivo Trinidense found more success in the final third, creating 2 big chances to Libertad's 1, a +1 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps, and recording 6 shots on target to Libertad's 3, a +3 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps. The build-up phases showed different priorities: Libertad made 223 passes in their own half to Sportivo Trinidense's 111, a +112 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps. Meanwhile, few accurate long balls were recorded in the match, but Sportivo Trinidense was clearly ahead with 30 to Libertad's 16, a +14 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. Sportivo Trinidense also recorded 11 interceptions to Libertad's 5, a +6 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall, 16 in total, at the 28th percentile of joint volume. Finally, few corners were recorded in the match, but Sportivo Trinidense was clearly ahead with 5 to Libertad's 2, a +3 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Libertad win 40%, draw 26%, and Sportivo Trinidense win 34%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible, so the 1-1 is not surprising and no result would have been scandalous.