FC Orenburg vs Nizhny Novgorod — Russian Premier League

**FC Orenburg 2-1 Nizhny Novgorod**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 62% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (35%) and duels (29%). The most striking contrast appeared in the wide areas: few accurate crosses were recorded in the match (12 in total, 25th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet FC Orenburg was clearly ahead with 11 to Nizhny Novgorod's 1, a +10 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. A similar disparity defined the dribbling: few successful dribbles were recorded in the match (14 in total, 13th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but FC Orenburg was clearly ahead with 12 to Nizhny Novgorod's 2, a +10 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** The game was defined by a high level of physical intensity and a combative atmosphere on the ground. Both teams engaged in a large volume of ground duels won (85 in total, 84th percentile of joint volume), with FC Orenburg winning 51 to Nizhny Novgorod's 34, a +17 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. This physicality extended to the air, where both sides won many aerial duels (39 in total, 72nd percentile of joint volume), and FC Orenburg won 24 to Nizhny Novgorod's 15, a +9 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps. While both sides were active in winning the ball back by challenging, with 45 tackles in total (96th percentile of joint volume), Nizhny Novgorod was more effective at reading the game, recording 13 interceptions to FC Orenburg's 6, a +7 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. Despite this, FC Orenburg found more ways to penetrate the final third: few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (18 in total, 27th percentile of joint volume), but FC Orenburg was clearly ahead with 15 to Nizhny Novgorod's 3, a +12 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. This pressure was reflected in the corner count, with 14 in total (83rd percentile of joint volume), and FC Orenburg making 10 to Nizhny Novgorod's 4, a +6 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are FC Orenburg win 47%, draw 32%, and Nizhny Novgorod win 21%. The performances pointed to a FC Orenburg win and that is what happened, supported by their 6 shots on target to Nizhny Novgorod's 1.