Shanghai Shenhua vs Chengdu Rongcheng FC — Chinese Super League

**Shanghai Shenhua 2-3 Chengdu Rongcheng FC**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 100% of matches in the database. The unusualness was primarily driven by defending (35%), attack (25%), and build-up (24%). Both teams were extremely active in the final third, recording 16 accurate crosses (99th percentile of joint volume), with Chengdu Rongcheng FC making 9 to Shanghai Shenhua's 7. Furthermore, the territorial control was heavily skewed: Chengdu Rongcheng FC made 265 passes in the opponent's half compared to Shanghai Shenhua's 108, a +157 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Shanghai Shenhua were much more successful at penetrating the box, recording 15 shots inside the area to Chengdu Rongcheng FC's 5, a +10 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. This pressure resulted in 10 corners for Shanghai Shenhua against 4 for Chengdu Rongcheng FC, a +6 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. Despite this, Chengdu Rongcheng FC were more effective at creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 4 big chances to Shanghai Shenhua's 2, a +2 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps. In the air, Chengdu Rongcheng FC won 24 aerial duels to Shanghai Shenhua's 11, a +13 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Defensively, there were few interceptions in the match (11 in total, 1st percentile of joint volume), but Shanghai Shenhua was clearly ahead with 11 to Chengdu Rongcheng FC's 0, a +11 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Both sides were under significant pressure, evidenced by 75 clearances (99th percentile of joint volume) and 12 blocked shots (97th percentile of joint volume), with Shanghai Shenhua making 42 clearances to Chengdu Rongcheng FC's 33.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Shanghai Shenhua win 46%, draw 39%, and Chengdu Rongcheng FC win 15%. The performances pointed toward a Shanghai Shenhua win, but the actual result had only a 15% probability. With Chengdu Rongcheng FC creating 4 big chances to Shanghai Shenhua's 2, the result was a narrow outcome.