Incheon United vs Gangwon FC — K League 1

**Incheon United 0-1 Gangwon FC**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 87% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by defending (32%), build-up (30%), and attack (24%). The lack of clear-cut scoring opportunities was a defining feature, with 0 big chances for either side, a volume in the 1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume. Despite this, the distribution of threat was heavily skewed; there were few shots inside the box in the match, but Gangwon FC was clearly ahead with 7 to Incheon United's 0, a gap at the 92nd percentile. Similarly, few shots on target were recorded in the match, but Gangwon FC was clearly ahead with 4 to Incheon United's 0, a gap at the 89th percentile.

**How it played out:** Gangwon FC exerted significant territorial control, completing 194 passes in the opponent's half compared to Incheon United's 85, a +109 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps, even though the joint volume of such passes was low (279 in total, 23rd percentile). Incheon United, by contrast, focused on a patient build-up from the back, completing 247 passes in their own half to Gangwon FC's 106, a +141 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. Gangwon FC also bypassed the midfield more frequently, completing 34 accurate long balls to Incheon United's 17, a +17 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps, in a match with few accurate long balls overall (51 in total, 27th percentile). Defensively, Incheon United was under more pressure, as they were clearly ahead with 7 blocked shots to Gangwon FC's 0, a gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Both sides were active in cutting passing lanes, recording a high volume of interceptions (31 in total, 96th percentile of joint volume). In the air, the game was physical with 47 in total aerial duels won (86th percentile of joint volume), with Gangwon FC winning 29 to Incheon United's 18, a +11 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. Incheon United was clearly ahead in one-on-one situations, completing 7 successful dribbles to Gangwon FC's 2, a +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps, despite few successful dribbles in the match overall (9 in total, 10th percentile).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Incheon United win 10%, draw 49%, and Gangwon FC win 41%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Gangwon FC recording 4 shots on target to Incheon United's 0, the narrow margin reflects a game where the majority of the threat was concentrated in one half.