St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock — Scottish Premiership

**St. Mirren 0-3 Kilmarnock**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (93% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily found in the build-up (52%) and defending (35%). Both teams were involved in a high volume of passes in their own half, with 458 in total (93rd percentile of joint volume), and St. Mirren made 58 more than Kilmarnock (258 to 200, 72nd percentile of gaps). At the other end, both sides also recorded a high volume of blocked shots (10 in total, 94th percentile of joint volume), with Kilmarnock making 2 more than St. Mirren (6 to 4, 66th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Kilmarnock maintained a steady presence in the final third, making 3 more corners than St. Mirren (4 to 1) in a match where few corners were recorded overall (5 in total, 9th percentile of joint volume). They also found more success with direct play, recording 34 accurate long balls to St. Mirren's 29 (a +5 gap at the 70th percentile of gaps) in a game with a high joint volume of such balls (63 in total, 79th percentile). St. Mirren, meanwhile, were more active in the opponent's half, completing 265 passes compared to Kilmarnock's 142 (a +123 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps) out of 407 total (92nd percentile of joint volume). Kilmarnock also showed more defensive activity, recording 32 clearances to St. Mirren's 17 (a +15 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps) and 14 interceptions to 10 (a +4 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps). In terms of individual actions, few successful dribbles were recorded overall (10 in total, 28th percentile of joint volume), but Kilmarnock was clearly ahead with 6 to St. Mirren's 4 (a +2 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps). Kilmarnock ultimately had the edge in direct threat, making 4 shots on target to St. Mirren's 2 (a +2 gap at the 75th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are St. Mirren win 18%, draw 35%, and Kilmarnock win 47%. The performances pointed to a Kilmarnock win and that is what happened, with Kilmarnock recording 4 shots on target to St. Mirren's 2.