Chivas vs Tigres — Liga MX

**Chivas 2-0 Tigres**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 77% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking contrast appeared in long-range attempts, where few shots from distance were recorded in the match (15 in total, 16th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Chivas was clearly ahead with 14 to Tigres' 1 (100th percentile of gaps). Build-up and attacking patterns also showed slight deviations, with Chivas making 19 accurate crosses to Tigres' 2 (100th percentile of gaps) and 13 corners to Tigres' 1 (99th percentile of gaps) in a game with few corners overall (14 in total, 17th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Chivas utilized a patient approach from the back, completing 199 passes in their own half compared to Tigres' 103 (84th percentile of gaps). This sustained pressure near the opponent's goal was reflected in the corner count and the fact that Chivas created 4 big chances to Tigres' 2 (87th percentile of gaps). Tigres, meanwhile, operated under significant pressure, recording 49 clearances to Chivas' 12 (99th percentile of gaps) and 9 blocked shots to Chivas' 0 (99th percentile of gaps) in a match with few blocked shots overall (9 in total, 22nd percentile of joint volume). While both sides were involved in a physical battle in the air, winning 46 aerial duels overall (84th percentile of joint volume), Chivas won 29 to Tigres' 17 (97th percentile of gaps). Defensively, Tigres was more active in winning the ball back by challenging, making 14 tackles to Chivas' 9 (75th percentile of gaps) in a match with few tackles overall (23 in total, 16th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chivas win 16%, draw 42%, and Tigres win 42%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-0 result is not surprising given that Chivas had 4 big chances to Tigres' 2.