Olimpia vs Recoleta — Paraguay Division Profesional

**Olimpia 3-2 Recoleta**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (92% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking distinction lies in the build-up, where few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (42 in total, 5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Olimpia was clearly ahead with 30 to Recoleta's 12 (a +18 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps). Defending also stood out, as Olimpia made 6 blocked shots to Recoleta's 1 (a +5 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps). While the unusualness was concentrated in these areas, the overall flow remained standard for a competitive fixture.

**How it played out:** Olimpia utilized a patient approach from the back, completing 217 passes in their own half compared to Recoleta's 131 (a +86 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps). Despite this, both sides were active on the flanks, producing a high volume of accurate crosses (9 in total, 75th percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them. In the final third, Olimpia had a moderate edge in direct threat, recording 6 shots on target to Recoleta's 3 (a +3 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps). The physical battle was intense but balanced, with both teams recording 36 tackles (78th percentile of joint volume) and 21 successful dribbles (88th percentile of joint volume). Olimpia won more of the few aerial duels available, recording 12 to Recoleta's 9 (a +3 gap at the 70th percentile of gaps), while both sides were forced to clear the ball frequently under pressure, with 47 clearances in total (81st percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Olimpia win 43%, draw 34%, and Recoleta win 23%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Olimpia's 3-2 win is consistent with a match where they created 3 big chances to Recoleta's 1.