Elfsborg vs Mjällby — Allsvenskan

**Elfsborg 1-1 Mjällby**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 73% of matches were more unusual than this one. The slight atypicality was concentrated in the build-up, defending, and duels. Elfsborg won the battle for ground duels, winning 52 to Mjällby's 32, a +20 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps in a game where both sides won 84 ground duels (80th percentile of joint volume). Defensively, Elfsborg also stood out by making 25 tackles to Mjällby's 13, a +12 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Elfsborg was the more proactive side in the final third, creating 4 big chances to Mjällby's 0, a gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. They also had a clear edge in wide areas; while there were few accurate crosses in the match (5 in total, 8th percentile of joint volume), Elfsborg made 5 to Mjällby's 0, a gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. Mjällby, meanwhile, focused on a patient build-up from the back, completing 249 passes in their own half to Elfsborg's 161, a +88 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps. They also looked to bypass the midfield, as Mjällby made 22 accurate long balls to Elfsborg's 18, a +4 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps, even though there were few accurate long balls in the match (40 in total, 13th percentile of joint volume). Both sides were active in the opponent's territory, completing 381 passes in the opponent's half (93rd percentile of joint volume), with Mjällby making 221 to Elfsborg's 160, a +61 gap at the 77th percentile of gaps. Elfsborg also won more one-on-one battles, recording 17 successful dribbles to Mjällby's 9, a +8 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Elfsborg win 49%, draw 39%, and Mjällby win 12%. The performances leaned towards an Elfsborg win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Elfsborg creating 4 big chances to Mjällby's 0, the draw remains a very plausible outcome.