Stjarnan vs Víkingur Reykjavík — Besta deild karla

**Stjarnan 1-3 Víkingur Reykjavík**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 79% of matches, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attacking phase (50%). The disparity in getting into dangerous areas was stark: few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (15 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Víkingur Reykjavík was clearly ahead with 14 to Stjarnan's 1 (99th percentile of gaps). A similar pattern emerged regarding clear-cut scoring opportunities, as few big chances occurred in the match (6 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Víkingur Reykjavík was clearly ahead with 6 to Stjarnan's 0 (99th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** The build-up phase showed two different approaches to ball progression. Both teams completed a high volume of passes in their own half (433 in total, 87th percentile of joint volume), but Stjarnan was much more conservative, making 262 to Víkingur Reykjavík's 171 (83rd percentile of gaps). In contrast, Víkingur Reykjavík utilized more direct play, making 13 more accurate long balls than the other side (33 to 20, 89th percentile of gaps). Sustained pressure was evident from the corners, with 13 in total (89th percentile of joint volume) and Víkingur Reykjavík making 8 to Stjarnan's 5 (79th percentile of gaps). Defensively, both sides were active in winning the ball back, recording 36 tackles in total (78th percentile of joint volume), while both teams also cleared the ball frequently under pressure (51 in total, 87th percentile of joint volume). While few interceptions occurred in the match (15 in total, 17th percentile of joint volume), Víkingur Reykjavík was clearly ahead with 11 to Stjarnan's 4 (89th percentile of gaps). The physical battle in the air was minimal, with only 14 aerial duels won between the two sides (7th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Stjarnan win 2%, draw 15%, and Víkingur Reykjavík win 83%. The performances pointed to a Víkingur Reykjavík win and that is what happened, supported by their 8 shots on target to Stjarnan's 1.