Cruzeiro vs Fluminense — Brasileirão

**Cruzeiro 1-1 Fluminense**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 82% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking distinction was in the shot selection, where Cruzeiro made 10 more shots from distance than the other side (Cruzeiro 12, Fluminense 2), a gap at the 99th percentile. While the build-up and attack accounted for the majority of the match's unusualness, the defending and duels remained relatively standard. Both sides were active in the final third, creating 5 big chances in total, a volume at the 82nd percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** Cruzeiro exerted significant territorial control, making 344 passes in the opponent's half compared to Fluminense's 109, a +235 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. Fluminense, meanwhile, looked to bypass the midfield more frequently; few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (38 in total, 6th percentile of joint volume), but Fluminense was clearly ahead with 24 to Cruzeiro's 14. On the flanks, Cruzeiro had a moderate edge with 5 accurate crosses to 2, a gap at the 75th percentile. In the box, Fluminense was more direct, recording 5 shots on target to Cruzeiro's 3, a gap at the 75th percentile. Both teams were equally active in reading the game, recording 11 and 12 interceptions respectively, while both sides also successfully completed a high volume of dribbles (21 in total, 89th percentile of joint volume). Defensively, Fluminense faced more pressure, recording 6 blocked shots to Cruzeiro's 2, a gap at the 84th percentile. Finally, few aerial duels were won in the match (17 in total, 10th percentile of joint volume), but Cruzeiro was clearly ahead with 11 to Fluminense's 6, a gap at the 80th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Cruzeiro win 23%, draw 28%, and Fluminense win 49%. The performances leaned towards a Fluminense win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With 5 big chances created in total, the 1-1 draw was a plausible outcome.