Breiðablik vs ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar — Besta deild karla

**Breiðablik 1-0 ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 86% of matches. The primary source of this atypicality was the build-up, which accounted for 53% of the unusualness. Both teams completed a massive volume of passes in their own half, totaling 536 (99th percentile of joint volume), with ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar making 313 to Breiðablik's 223 (a +90 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps). Conversely, there were few passes in the opponent's half in the match (257 in total, 13th percentile of joint volume), yet Breiðablik was clearly ahead with 179 to ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar's 78 (a +101 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar took the lead in several specific areas of the game. They were clearly ahead in accurate crosses, making 6 to Breiðablik's 1 (a +5 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps), and they were clearly ahead in aerial duels won, recording 16 to Breiðablik's 8 (a +8 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps). They also were clearly ahead in interceptions, recording 5 to Breiðablik's 2 (a +3 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps). Breiðablik found more success in one-on-one situations, making 8 successful dribbles to ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar's 4 (a +4 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps). While there were few blocked shots (defending) in the match (3 in total, 29th percentile of joint volume), Breiðablik was clearly ahead with 2 to ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar's 1 (a +1 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps). Both sides maintained pressure near the goal, recording 11 corners in total (81st percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Breiðablik win 30%, draw 39%, and ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar win 31%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-0 scoreline is not surprising given that ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar was clearly ahead in big chances (1 to 0).