HEBC Hamburg vs Borussia Dortmund — DFB Pokal

**HEBC Hamburg 0-5 Borussia Dortmund**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 97% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by build-up (42%) and attack (28%), with defending and duels contributing the remainder. The defensive data is particularly striking: few blocked shots (defending) were recorded in the match (9 in total, 22nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but HEBC Hamburg was clearly ahead with 9 to 0 (100th percentile of gaps). Similarly, there were few clearances in the match (54 in total, 26th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet HEBC Hamburg was clearly ahead with 46 to 8 (100th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Borussia Dortmund controlled the territorial space, making 471 passes in the opponent's half compared to HEBC Hamburg's 18 (a +453 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps), even though few passes in the opponent's half were made in the match (489 in total, 1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume). While both sides were conservative with patient build-up from the back, recording 103 and 97 passes in their own half respectively (200 in total, 9th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Borussia Dortmund was clearly ahead in direct play with 22 accurate long balls to HEBC Hamburg's 14 (a +8 gap at the 78th percentile of gaps). This translated into a significant attacking advantage; few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (29 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Borussia Dortmund was clearly ahead with 28 to 1 (99th percentile of gaps). This dominance continued in other areas: few shots on target were recorded in the match (13 in total, 20th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Borussia Dortmund was clearly ahead with 12 to 1 (99th percentile of gaps). Borussia Dortmund also won more of the game's few accurate crosses, recording 11 to 0 (99th percentile of gaps). Aerial duels were minimal and balanced, with both sides winning 5 each (10 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are HEBC Hamburg win 5%, draw 12% and Borussia Dortmund win 83%. The performances pointed to a Borussia Dortmund win and that is what happened. With 12 shots on target to 1, the result was deserved.