Reims vs Guingamp — Ligue 2

**Reims 2-2 Guingamp**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 64% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (40%) and attack (30%). The most striking contrast was in the creation of clear-cut scoring opportunities, where both teams produced 8 big chances in total (80th percentile of joint volume), but Guingamp made 6 to Reims' 2, a gap at the 99th percentile. Furthermore, both sides took a high volume of shots from distance, totaling 13 (88th percentile of joint volume), with Guingamp making 8 to Reims' 5, a gap at the 80th percentile.

**How it played out:** Reims relied on a patient and safe build-up from the back, completing 255 passes in their own half compared to Guingamp's 212, a gap at the 66th percentile of joint volume (467 in total, 95th percentile). In contrast, Guingamp bypassed the midfield more frequently, completing 25 accurate long balls to Reims' 15, a gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps, despite only 40 accurate long balls in the match (9th percentile of joint volume). Guingamp also found more ways to pressure the box, as they made 3 corners to Reims' 0, a gap at the 79th percentile of gaps, in a match with only 3 corners in total (5th percentile of joint volume). On the flanks, both teams were active, completing 11 accurate crosses in total (88th percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them. Defensively, Reims was more active in cutting passing lanes and blocking shots, recording 12 interceptions to Guingamp's 7 (87th percentile of gaps) and 5 blocked shots to 2 (91st percentile of gaps). Guingamp, however, was more active in winning the ball back by challenging, making 15 tackles to Reims' 8, a gap at the 84th percentile of gaps, in a match with only 23 tackles in total (12th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Reims win 16%, draw 29%, and Guingamp win 55%. The performances leaned towards a Guingamp win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Guingamp creating 6 big chances to Reims' 2, the draw was a plausible outcome.