Middlesbrough vs Millwall — Championship

**Middlesbrough 2-2 Millwall**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 99% of matches in the database, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (47%) and defending (25%). The most striking contrast appeared in long-range attempts: few shots from distance in the match, but Middlesbrough was clearly ahead (Middlesbrough 11, Millwall 0, 99th percentile of gaps). A similar disparity defined the build-up from the back: few passes in their own half in the match, but Middlesbrough was clearly ahead (Middlesbrough 236, Millwall 37, 99th percentile of gaps). Furthermore, while corners were scarce (15 in total, 18th percentile of joint volume), Middlesbrough was clearly ahead (Middlesbrough 14, Millwall 1, 100th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Middlesbrough maintained a constant presence in the final third, evidenced by their lead in accurate crosses (10 to 5, 87th percentile of gaps) and a higher volume of shots on target (7 to 4, 78th percentile of gaps). Both sides were active in the box, recording 22 shots inside the area (96th percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them. Millwall, meanwhile, adopted a much more reactive stance, throwing bodies in front of shots with 10 blocks to Middlesbrough's 1 (99th percentile of gaps). This defensive pressure was reflected in their clearances, as Millwall was clearly ahead (Millwall 42, Middlesbrough 8, 98th percentile of gaps) despite few clearances in the match overall (50 in total, 25th percentile). Millwall also won more tackles (19 to 5, 98th percentile of gaps) and were clearly ahead in ground duels (Millwall 25, Middlesbrough 20, 71st percentile of gaps) in a game with few such duels won overall (45 in total, 2nd percentile).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Middlesbrough win 23%, draw 36%, and Millwall win 41%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-2 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where both sides created 3 big chances each.