Toluca vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX

**Toluca 2-3 Santos Laguna**

**What set this match apart:** This was a fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (this match was more unusual than 56% of matches). The unusualness was primarily driven by the attacking output, which accounted for 55% of the atypicality. Both teams were extremely active in the final third, recording 30 shots inside the box (99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Toluca was more frequent in these areas, recording 18 shots inside the box to Santos Laguna's 12, a gap at the 81st percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Toluca was the more dangerous side in front of goal, creating 6 big chances to Santos Laguna's 1, a gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. This translated into a higher volume of direct threats, with Toluca recording 9 shots on target to Santos Laguna's 6. Santos Laguna, meanwhile, focused on long-range attempts, recording 10 shots from distance to Toluca's 6, a gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. Despite this, Santos Laguna was the more dominant force in the build-up, completing 254 passes in the opponent's half compared to Toluca's 172, a +82 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps. Both sides maintained sustained pressure, evidenced by 13 corners in total (92nd percentile of joint volume). Defensively, both teams were busy winning the ball back with 47 tackles in total (98th percentile of joint volume), while Toluca recorded 14 interceptions to Santos Laguna's 9, a +5 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Toluca win 57%, draw 27%, and Santos Laguna win 16%. The performances pointed to a Toluca win, but the actual result had only a 16% probability. With Toluca creating 6 big chances to Santos Laguna's 1, the outcome was a surprise given the statistical trend.