Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre — Liga Profesional

**Vélez Sarsfield 3-2 Tigre**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 60% of matches, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attacking phase (50%) and the build-up (32%). Both teams were involved in a high-volume attacking display, recording 17 shots on target (99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them. The game was defined by clear-cut scoring opportunities, as both sides created 8 big chances (99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Tigre making 5 and Vélez Sarsfield making 3 (80th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** The attacking pressure was reflected in the defensive actions, with Tigre making 7 blocked shots to Vélez Sarsfield's 1 (94th percentile of gaps), indicating more bodies were thrown in front of shots. Both sides were active in winning the ball back, recording 39 tackles in total (87th percentile of joint volume), and both teams were forced to clear the ball frequently, with 46 clearances in total (79th percentile of joint volume). In the build-up, Vélez Sarsfield utilized a more direct approach, making 43 accurate long balls to Tigre's 26 (92nd percentile of gaps), while also making 213 passes in their own half to Tigre's 113 (85th percentile of gaps). Conversely, Tigre exerted sustained pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 7 corners to Vélez Sarsfield's 2 (90th percentile of gaps). Both teams maintained territorial control in the final third, completing 368 passes in the opponent's half (91st percentile of joint volume). Long-range attempts were also a staple of the game, with 17 shots from distance in total (94th percentile of joint volume), and Vélez Sarsfield making 12 to Tigre's 5 (95th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Vélez Sarsfield win 24%, draw 38%, and Tigre win 38%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Despite Tigre having 5 big chances to Vélez Sarsfield's 3, the 3-2 scoreline remains a reflection of a wide-open contest.