Luqueño vs Guaraní — Paraguay Division Profesional

**Luqueño 0-1 Guaraní**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart (100% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast lies in the build-up, where Guaraní completed 260 passes in their own half compared to Luqueño's 133, a +127 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps. Despite this patient approach from the back, both sides opted for direct play, recording 69 accurate long balls in total (90th percentile of joint volume), with Guaraní making 37 to Luqueño's 32 (70th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** The game was defined by a high volume of defensive actions and sustained pressure near the goal. Both teams recorded a large number of clearances (Luqueño 23, Guaraní 26; 49 in total, 84th percentile of joint volume) and a high volume of tackles (Luqueño 19, Guaraní 18; 37 in total, 82nd percentile of joint volume). Luqueño was more active in blocking shots, with 4 to Guaraní's 2 (85th percentile of gaps), while they also recorded 10 interceptions to Guaraní's 7 (77th percentile of gaps). On the attacking side, both teams struggled to find clear-cut opportunities, with only 7 shots inside the box in total (10th percentile of joint volume) and just 2 big chances in total (14th percentile of joint volume). Guaraní also had a slight edge in attacking down the flanks, making 4 accurate crosses to Luqueño's 2 (73rd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Luqueño win 31%, draw 57%, and Guaraní win 12%. The performances pointed toward a draw, and the actual result had only a 12% probability. With Luqueño creating 2 big chances to Guaraní's 0, the narrow 1-0 scoreline was a slight deviation from the expected outcome.