Turkiye vs France — UEFA Nations League A

**Turkiye 0-1 France**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 67% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking differences appeared in the duels and build-up phases. France dominated the one-on-one situations, completing 16 successful dribbles to Turkiye's 4, a +12 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. In terms of ball progression, France also showed a significant edge in patient build-up from the back, completing 265 passes in their own half compared to Turkiye's 124, a +141 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** France maintained a high volume of territorial control, completing 295 passes in the opponent's half to Turkiye's 148, a +147 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps. Both sides were active in the final third, recording 17 shots inside the box in total, a volume at the 88th percentile of the two teams' joint volume. While France took 5 shots from distance to Turkiye's 2, a moderate gap at the 78th percentile, Turkiye were more active in cutting passing lanes, recording 17 interceptions to France's 14, a +3 gap at the 78th percentile of gaps. The game remained physically contested on the ground, with 76 ground duels won in total, a volume at the 74th percentile of joint volume, where France held a +12 edge at the 90th percentile of gaps. Both teams also threw bodies in front of shots, recording 6 blocks in total, a volume at the 73rd percentile of joint volume.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Turkiye win 30%, draw 42%, and France win 28%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With 4 shots on target for France and 3 for Turkiye, the narrow margin reflected the close nature of the contest.