Ñublense vs Puerto Montt — Copa Chile

**Ñublense 2-1 Puerto Montt**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 60% of matches. The primary distinction lies in the attacking output of Ñublense, who recorded 15 shots from distance compared to just 2 for Puerto Montt, a +13 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps. This direct threat was further evidenced by Ñublense making 9 shots on target to Puerto Montt's 2, a +7 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. While the attacking disparity was stark, the unusualness was also distributed across defending and build-up.

**How it played out:** Ñublense found success by attacking down the flanks, recording 15 accurate crosses to Puerto Montt's 2, a +13 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps. They also maintained a slight edge in ball progression, making 113 passes in their own half compared to Puerto Montt's 71, even though the match saw few passes in their own half overall (184 in total, 5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). In terms of individual skill, Ñublense was clearly ahead with 5 successful dribbles to Puerto Montt's 2, despite few successful dribbles in the match overall (7 in total, 8th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Conversely, Puerto Montt faced significant pressure, recording 76 clearances to Ñublense's 9, a +67 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. They were also more active in winning the ball back, making 13 tackles to Ñublense's 5, a +8 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps, and were clearly ahead in blocked shots with 7 to 0, a +7 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. The game was physical in the air, with both sides winning many aerial duels (43 in total, 80th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), though Puerto Montt won 27 to Ñublense's 16, a +11 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Ñublense win 20%, draw 45%, and Puerto Montt win 35%. The performances pointed toward a draw, and the actual result had only a 20% probability. With Ñublense creating 2 big chances to Puerto Montt's 1, the result was the least likely of the three outcomes.