Honduras vs Suriname — CONCACAF Nations League

**Honduras 2-3 Suriname**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (60% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the high volume of long-range attempts, with 14 shots from distance in total (96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), and Suriname making 8 to Honduras's 6 (70th percentile of gaps). While both sides were active from distance, the game was defined by a massive disparity in build-up. Honduras completed 286 passes in their own half compared to Suriname's 127, a +159 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Honduras maintained a significant territorial advantage, completing 238 passes in the opponent's half to Suriname's 124 (70th percentile of gaps), even as the total volume of such passes remained high at 362 (79th percentile of joint volume). This control was supported by Honduras's ability to read the game, recording 12 interceptions to Suriname's 5 (94th percentile of gaps). In terms of direct play, few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (16th percentile of joint volume), but Honduras was clearly ahead with 22 to Suriname's 16 (68th percentile of gaps). Suriname, meanwhile, found success in physical and individual duels; they won 10 aerial duels to Honduras's 6 (75th percentile of gaps) and Suriname was clearly ahead in dribbles with 9 to Honduras's 3 (88th percentile of gaps). In the final third, few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (18th percentile of joint volume), but Honduras was clearly ahead with 7 to Suriname's 2 (69th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Honduras win 41%, draw 31%, and Suriname win 28%. The performances leaned towards a Honduras win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. This is reflected in the fact that Honduras created 3 big chances to Suriname's 1.