Tijuana vs Atlas — Liga MX

**Tijuana 2-3 Atlas**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 61% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (45%) and attack (37%). The most striking contrast was in territorial control: few passes in the opponent's half overall (412 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Atlas made 290 more than the other side (Atlas 351, Tijuana 61), a gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Conversely, while few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (48 in total, 30th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Tijuana was clearly ahead with 29 to Atlas's 19, a gap at the 79th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Atlas exerted significant pressure near the goal, recording 11 corners to Tijuana's 5, a gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps, while both sides produced a high volume of accurate crosses (13 in total, 96th percentile of joint volume). This pressure was reflected in the shot volume, as both teams did a lot of shots inside the box (24 in total, 91st percentile of joint volume), with Atlas making 10 more than the other side (Atlas 17, Tijuana 7, 97th percentile of gaps). Tijuana, however, was more successful at creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, recording 5 big chances to Atlas's 2, a gap at the 75th percentile of gaps. The physical battle was also notable: Tijuana won 23 aerial duels to Atlas's 18, and few ground duels were won in the match (59 in total, 23rd percentile of joint volume), but Tijuana was clearly ahead with 32 to Atlas's 27, a gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps. Tijuana also faced more pressure, making 6 blocked shots to Atlas's 1, a gap at the 97th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Tijuana win 52%, draw 32%, and Atlas win 16%. The performances pointed to a Tijuana win, but the actual result had only 16% probability. With Tijuana creating 5 big chances to Atlas's 2, the outcome was a surprise relative to the chances created.