Germany vs Greece — UEFA Nations League A

**Germany 0-1 Greece**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 66% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by the build-up (64% of the unusualness). The contrast in direct play was stark: few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (30 in total, 1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Greece was clearly ahead with 22 to Germany's 8 (a +14 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps). Conversely, Germany maintained a massive territorial advantage, completing 435 passes in the opponent's half compared to Greece's 74 (a +361 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Germany established a patient build-up from the back, completing 233 passes in their own half to Greece's 93 (a +140 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps), even though few passes in their own half were made in the match overall (326 in total, 20th percentile of joint volume). This territorial control translated into sustained pressure, as Germany earned 8 corners to Greece's 2 (a +6 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps). While there were few shots on target in the match, Germany was clearly ahead with 5 to Greece's 1 (a +4 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps), including 8 shots from distance to Greece's 3 (a +5 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps). Greece responded with a combative defensive effort, winning 23 ground duels to Germany's 15 (a +8 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps) and recording 32 clearances to Germany's 17 (a +15 gap at the 78th percentile of gaps). Both sides were active in winning the ball back, recording 38 tackles in total (84th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Germany win 42%, draw 41%, and Greece win 17%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Germany had 2 big chances to Greece's 1, but the 0-1 result remains a very close affair.