Norway vs Portugal — UEFA Nations League A

**Norway 1-2 Portugal**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 63% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (33%), followed by the attack (24%), defending (22%), and duels (21%). Norway and Portugal both created a massive volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 9 big chances in total at the 98th percentile of joint volume. Norway held the edge in this area, creating 6 big chances to Portugal's 3, a gap at the 87th percentile.

**How it played out:** Norway was more active in getting into dangerous areas, recording 16 shots inside the box compared to Portugal's 7, a +9 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps. This was supported by a heavy focus on the flanks, where Norway made 9 accurate crosses to Portugal's 4, a +5 gap at the 85th percentile. In contrast, Portugal was more active in the defensive phase, recording 16 interceptions to Norway's 12, and 6 blocked shots to Norway's 3, a +3 gap at the 75th percentile. Both sides were cautious with direct play, completing only 32 accurate long balls in total, a figure at the 7th percentile of joint volume. Norway also showed a significant advantage in individual ball progression, making 17 successful dribbles to Portugal's 5, a +12 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. On the ground, Norway won 46 duels to Portugal's 31, a +15 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps, while both teams were patient in their own half with 465 passes in total, at the 80th percentile of joint volume.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Norway win 44%, draw 29%, and Portugal win 27%. The performances leaned towards a Norway win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Norway creating 6 big chances to Portugal's 3, the narrow 1-2 scoreline reflects a very close contest.