Racing Club vs Boca Juniors — Copa Argentina

**Racing Club 2-3 Boca Juniors**

**What set this match apart:** This was a fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (59% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the defending (46% of the unusualness) and the build-up (35% of the unusualness). Racing Club was much more active in winning the ball back, recording 28 tackles to Boca Juniors' 14, a +14 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Conversely, Racing Club was also under significantly more pressure, making 46 clearances to Boca Juniors' 17, a +29 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Boca Juniors was clearly ahead in the build-up, recording 235 passes in their own half compared to Racing Club's 67, a +168 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. While there were few passes in the opponent's half in the match, Boca Juniors was clearly ahead with 269 to Racing Club's 72, a +97 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. Boca Juniors also utilized more direct play, making 40 accurate long balls to Racing Club's 22, a +18 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. On the flanks, Boca Juniors also had a significant edge with 10 accurate crosses to Racing Club's 3, a +7 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Despite these differences in construction, the attacking output was more balanced: both teams produced 10 shots on target (79th percentile of joint volume) and 12 shots from distance (84th percentile of joint volume). Both sides also created a high volume of big chances, with 5 in total at the 86th percentile of joint volume.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Racing Club win 38%, draw 39%, and Boca Juniors win 23%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. While Racing Club had 3 big chances to Boca Juniors' 2, the 2-3 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest.