Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers — Championship

**Middlesbrough 1-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 54% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by build-up (39%) and attack (26%). A defining characteristic was the lack of direct play from the back: few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (32 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Wolverhampton Wanderers was clearly ahead with 19 to Middlesbrough's 13 (+6, 73rd percentile of gaps). Similarly, few aerial duels were won in the match (10 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Wolverhampton Wanderers was clearly ahead with 7 to Middlesbrough's 3 (+4, 74th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Both sides were active in the final third, recording a high volume of passes in the opponent's half (380 in total, 94th percentile of joint volume) and a high volume of passes in their own half (428 in total, 89th percentile of joint volume). Middlesbrough found more success on the flanks, recording 8 accurate crosses to Wolverhampton Wanderers' 5 (+3, 74th percentile of gaps) out of 13 in total (94th percentile of joint volume). While both teams took many shots from distance (13 in total, 91st percentile of joint volume), Middlesbrough was more productive in front of goal, recording 6 shots on target to Wolverhampton Wanderers' 2 (+4, 86th percentile of gaps). Despite this, few big chances occurred in the match (1 in total, 21st percentile of joint volume), but Wolverhampton Wanderers was clearly ahead with 1 to Middlesbrough's 0 (+1, 73rd percentile of gaps). Middlesbrough also faced more pressure, recording 28 clearances to Wolverhampton Wanderers' 19 (+9, 81st percentile of gaps) out of 47 in total (78th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Middlesbrough win 45%, draw 36%, and Wolverhampton Wanderers win 19%. The performances pointed to a Middlesbrough win (45%), and that is what happened. This result was supported by Middlesbrough's 6 shots on target compared to 2 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.